The LlamaPen of Warren 'Llama' Ernst - My Stupid Opinion

Oil Prices Vs. Gas Prices - a Disconnect? A Conspiracy?

Mon, 30 Oct 2006 12:12:16 -0700

Editor's Note: Its Election Day, and October average oil prices are out, so I've updated the table below.

So you've probably noticed that gas prices are dropping a lot, and that it seemed to start around a month ago. If you're like me, always looking for cause-and-effect relationships in stuff, you might be wondering what the cause of this drop in gas prices is. Initially, I assumed it was that crude oil prices were raising and falling, and that gas was following suit.

Being a computer guy, I keep a gas price/mileage/economy journal in my Treo with a neat little program that calculates all that stuff automatically -- just enter in the odometer mileage, amount of gas pumped to fill up the tank, and the total price paid for the fill-up, and it does the rest. It can easily break down the price per gallon of gas, and Excel can easily average those values to get the average price of gas over a month.

Crude oil price statistics are all over the map, mostly because the price of a barrel of crude oil changes depending on what sort of oil it is (where it comes from), but it seems that different reporting organizations use different criteria too. (When you hear "Oil is $60 a barrel today" on your local 24-hour newsradio station, you have to wonder where they get that data and what sort of oil they're talking about.) Anyway, the Illinois Oil & Gas Association, of all places, has a pretty nice history of average crude oil prices for a given month, and though I don't know exactly what type of oil they're pricing, I'm going to assume they're using the same type and data month after month.

So this weekend I put these data points together, and got the following table:

Month	Price per Gallon of Gas	Price per Barrel of Oil
Jan	$2.52	$58.30
Feb	$2.69	$54.65
Mar	$2.77	$55.42
Apr	$3.16	$62.50
May	$3.53	$62.94
Jun	$3.42	$62.85
Jul	$3.40	$66.28
Aug	$3.27	$64.93
Sep	$2.93	$55.73
Oct	$2.59	$50.98

And after seeing this, what is my gut reaction?

Well, between January and March, Oil prices actually dropped around $3 a barrel, yet Gas prices rose about $.25 a gallon. Between April and May, Oil rose a mere $.44 a barrel, yet Gas rose $.37 a gallon.

September Oil prices are around the same as February, yet gas was $.24 a gallon more per gallon.

Overall though, the general trend seems to be that Gas prices generally follow Oil prices in the grand scheme of things. It seems, however, that there is something of a disconnect on a micro-level, where the small fluctuations of the price of each don't seem to follow each other. Hmmm. I guess I am a little suspicious of this, but I can't put my finger on why.

It has been suggested/reported (by the New York Times, The Washington Post, and several bloggers in high places) that large investment hedge funds are (temporarily) pulling out of oil futures, which is lowering the price of crude oil, (and hence gas), at the request of the Bush administration, so the voting public won't be so pissed off at the (Republican) incumbents in Congress and elsewhere. If it weren't for the fact that this scheme requires cogent thought on the part of the President, this makes total sense to me.

Anyone have any other thoughts?

Stephen Colbert Roasts President Bush Live, To His Face - Amazing Video

Tue, 02 May 2006 15:15:34 -0700

So Stephen Colbert was invited to speak at the White House Correspondents Dinner, where he was apparently the last speaker of the night. I'm sure event planners got a lot more than they bargained for: Stephen basically roasted President Bush, a standing president I might add, for 20 minutes while the President was not more than 10 feet away.

Amazingly, the mainstream media is not generally reporting this watershed event, though when they do, they generally claim the President left immediately after Mr. Colber's performance. Hello?! His was the last performance of the night! Of course the President left immediately afterwards. Let's not report and cause and effect where there is none.

Anyway, the video of Mr. Colbert's entire performance is online. The best versions I've found are at FreeVideoBlog.com. Be sure to check them out before the powers that be make it, and Mr. Colbert, disappear.

Post Election Thoughts, AND, How to Get A Democrat Elected as President (Really!)

Thu, 04 Nov 2004 12:48:42 -0700

I
have some thoughts on the recent presidential election. I studied
political science in college, and other than creating balloon animals
at parties, commenting on elections is all this degree qualifies me
for.

Needless to say, I voted for John Kerry, not necessarily
because I am pro-Kerry; actually, I am just pro-smart-person, and
religious morality in a candidate doesn’t mean that much to me.
Incidentally, I live in California.

What I have taken away from
the election is that residents of the coasts of this country are more
interested in smart people than religious “good-ol’-boys” who can cast
things as morality plays. And the South and Midwest portions of the
country prefer this in a candidate instead. I can say this now because
the obvious mis-steps in Iraq and elsewhere, and the clear, rational
arguments John Kerry made, simply didn’t have an impact on voters in
the Midwest and South.

To me, this means (and I am simplifying
this in a major way, so don’t start arguing with me about the nuances
of this belief) that the to the Midwest and South, the voters will vote
for Character and Religious Morality, and the Coast will vote for Clear
Thinking. Issues and policies don’t mean as much otherwise – Iraq
proves this, because Iraq is not a nonsense issue like school uniforms,
and Character and Religious Morality beat out the Iraq debacle in the
Midwest and Southern states. And besides, the vast majority of voters
are squarely in the center of the political spectrum, and a candidate
that gets themselves close to center will have voters who actually
consider policies anyway.

I’ve decided that this is OK. This is
the American political system. This is democracy (Actually, it is a
Republic, but never mind.) If a majority of voters feel that a
religious good-ol-boy is more representative of their beliefs, well,
that’s a majority, and that’s why we vote. The country got what it
wanted, and I’m all for that.

But I’m also slightly
Democrat-leaning for national issues (not much, but slightly left of
center), so I’d like to see my guys get to be President next time
around. Here’s my advice to the Democratic Party about how to get
someone elected:

Follow these tips, and you’ll get the Midwest and South:

You need an experienced candidate who is religious and from the South
or Midwest. He needs to put issues is a Moral perspective. He needs to
be something of a Good-Ol-Boy.
He needs to talk simply, and
have a speaking style that appeals to Southern and Midwestern
residents. I’m not trying to be insulting here to anyone, but a lot of
people from the area didn’t take kindly to Kerry’s tortured sentence
structure and vocabulary. New Yorkers didn’t seem to mind/.

Follow these tips, and you’ll get the Coasts:

He needs to be smart, and also actually be perceived as smart.
He needs to speak English correctly. Don’t massacre the English language, either by being too complicated or too simple.
He needs a track record and a lot of experience. I think that most Bush
supporters respected Kerry’s experience in the military and in the
Senate (even if they didn’t necessarily agree with him) more than John Edwards’
paltry one term.

Get the Coasts and the Midwest and the South, and you’ve got a Presidency!

Notice
how I didn’t mention issues or policies at all here! All I said was to
stay within striking distance of the Center. Don’t be egregiously far
away from the political leanings of most voters, and most voters simply
wont care. Stray too far from what they like and relate to, and voters
can’t get past it, and will vote for the other guy.

So, that’s my theory and beliefs. The best
way to test these is to try to apply them to past elections and see if
they hold true; that’s for a future post (really!). I also hope to
apply these ideas to future Democratic candidates (already Ms. Clinton
and John Edwards are positioning themselves) and decide if they should
pursue things.

Thanks for reading!

Things Republicans Believe; a Truthful and Sarcastic List

Mon, 12 Jul 2004 13:58:10 -0700

A friend emailed me this humorous list of Things Republicans Believe, which I think is pretty clever, and definitely not written by me. I did reorder and renumber some items and added a little to Item #4. That said, enjoy! (Oh yeah, Vote Kerry in 2004!)

1. A president lying about an extramarital affair is an impeachable
offense. A president lying to enlist support for a war in which
thousands die is solid defense policy.

2. Government should limit
itself to the powers named in the Constitution, which include banning
gay marriages and censoring the Internet.

3. The public has a right to know about Hillary's cattle trades, but George Bush's driving record is none of our business.

4. What Bill Clinton did in the 1960s and John Kerry did in the 1970s is
of vital national interest, but what Bush did in the '80s is irrelevant.

5. You
support states' rights, which means Attorney General John Ashcroft can
tell states what local voter initiatives they have a right to adopt.

6. HMOs and insurance companies have the best interests of the public at heart.

7. Providing health care to all Iraqis is sound policy. Providing health care to all Americans is socialism.

8. Global warming and tobacco's link to cancer are junk science, but creationism should be taught in schools.

9. The best way to improve military morale is to praise the troops in
speeches and to allow them to abuse prisoners of war while slashing
veterans' benefits and combat pay.

10. Group sex and drug use are degenerate sins unless you someday run for governor of California as a Republican.

11. If condoms are kept out of schools, adolescents won't have sex.

12. Being a drug addict is a moral failing and a crime, unless you're a
conservative radio host. Then it's an illness and you need our prayers
for your recovery.

13. The United States should get out of the United Nations, and our highest
national priority is enforcing UN resolutions against Iraq.

14. Government should relax regulation of Big Business and Big Money but
crack down on individuals who use marijuana to relieve the pain of
illness.

15. "Standing Tall for America" means firing your workers and moving their jobs to India.

16. A
woman can't be trusted with decisions about her own body, but
multinational corporations can make decisions affecting all mankind
without regulation.

17. Jesus loves you, and shares your hatred of homosexuals and Hillary Clinton.

18. A good way to fight terrorism is to belittle our longtime allies, then demand their cooperation and money.

19. Saddam
was a good guy when Reagan armed him, a bad guy when Bush's daddy made
war on him, a good guy when Cheney did business with him and a bad guy
when Bush needed a "we can't find Bin Laden" diversion. What he did to
prisoners was wrong and was justification for launching a war against
his country but when we do it, an apology will suffice.

20. Trade
with Cuba is wrong because the country is communist, but trade with
China and Vietnam is vital to a spirit of international harmony.

Southern California Gas: $2.55 a Gallon: Iraqi Gas: $0.05 a Gallon.

Sat, 05 Jun 2004 12:44:07 -0700

While reading Yahoo, one of the news blurbs caught my interest. Apparently, Saddam Hussein subsidized the price of gasoline for Iraqis, giving Iraqi citizens at least one thing to be happy about. Remember, even Mussolini got the Italian trains to run on time. (Or perhaps not.)

Now that the U.S. is calling the shots over there (something I am against, BTW, and have been since the very beginning), we are apparently doing the same thing. To the tune of 5 cents a gallon. (I just paid $2.55 for hi-test yesterday. The poor British citizen is paying about $5.30 a gallon.)

So now, at least when a local militia member drives a car-bomb over to a U.S. soldier (who I am personally willing to support far more than our "President") and kills him, they are able to do so economically. And on my dime, too, since U.S. taxpayers are actually the ones subsidizing cheap Iraqi gas.

I sure hope I'm not the only one who is pissed off by this. If you are too, please remember how you feel now when election time rolls around...

Sites I Like: Alton Brown's Blog

Tue, 01 Jun 2004 14:17:47 -0700

Ever since I got married and got some cool cookware and cooking utensils, Lisa and I have been sort of learning to cook stuff we actually like to eat, and we've discovered The Food Network on our satellite dish.

Anyway, by far my favorite "chef" on the network is Alton Brown. Part Julia Child and part Mr. Wizard, he illustrates the science of cooking
with homemade props (the example of the sock-puppets eating packing popcorn in
a kiddie pool to show how bacteria turns milk into cheese is my
favorite), and a common-sense approach to cooking that demystifies the whole process. His amazing television show is entitled Good Eats.

Anyway, I just discovered that Alton has his own Blog on his own site. How I missed this I'll never know. There's also a nice article on him in Wired Magazine. Anyway, since Lisa knows that I think Alton Brown is a god, and does for food what I try to do for computing, here's some suggestions: watch his show, buy his books, read his Blog, and enjoy cooking. I've added his Blog to my Outside Links panel on the side of this site.

A GREAT Article About Starting Your Own Software Company

Wed, 28 Jan 2004 20:24:48 -0800

Well, this isn't my article or anything, but having attempted and failed at starting up two Internet services companies in the past 5 years, this article, entitled Getting Started with Your Own Software Company, really rings true.

There are some good tips in there. If you're thinking about starting your own software or services company, read this and think about it.

Electric Shaving Thoughts: the Braun 7526 Syncro Shaver System

Sun, 18 Jan 2004 20:23:42 -0800

Any man (or woman, for that matter) who tells you that they like shaving is flat-out lying. It is a complete waste of time that must be repeated every freaking day, and it makes a mess too.

Every few years I try a different electric shaver, (and my friend Pat Chen must be very happy with this, because he winds up inheriting my cast-off shavers after a few months) hoping that some new technology will overcome the inherent problems of electric shaving, and maybe 2004 will be different, since I'm trying a Braun 7526 Syncro Shaver System. So far, so good. But first, my beefs with electric shaving.

"President" Bush Finally Takes a Stand Against...Child Sex Slavery?

Mon, 22 Sep 2003 21:21:22 -0700

Let it not be said that "President" Bush is afraid to take a stand on the tough issues. In a brave speech to the world at the United Nations today, our "President" spoke out against...the trade of hundreds of thousands of children into sexual slavery. Here's a link to the full speech -- look at the bottom parapgraphs.

From now on, "President" Bush will ensure the laws of the United States "...make it a crime for any person to enter the United States, or for any (U.S.) citizen to travel abroad, for the purpose of sex tourism involving children." One assumes it is still OK to travel abroad for the purpose of sex tourism involving adults. For now.

I have just learned that "President" Bush will soon be taking a stand on the equally morally ambigious issues of: beating nuns (against), cannibalism (against), picking your nose in public (against), and sexual tourism involving vegetables (undecided.)

On a serious note, I want to make it clear that I am not in favor of having children sold into sexual (or any kind of) slavery. I don't think anyone is. So to me, to lecture the world on a subject that everyone agrees on, after going to war alone against Iraq and pissing off everyone else on the planet, "President" Bush is being a little disingenuous, no?

I Survive Esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD), or, my thoughts on Schatzki's Ring.

Sat, 13 Sep 2003 21:15:07 -0700

About a year ago, there would be times where I had difficulty swallowing food; it felt as though my stomach had released an "air bubble" into my throat at the same time I was swallowing something, and the food and the bubble would have a shoving match in my esophagus. This struggle for throaty-domination would expand against my windpipe, conviently located next door to the problem, and would give me the sensation of choking to death.

Needless to say, eating soon became a million laughs, until my good friend and medical doctor Jason Black was
present when it happened at lunch one day. After the exciting events
associated with the episode passed, he promised to speak to an
associate, who immediately diagnosed the condition as Schatzki's Ring, also known as "Steakhouse Syndrome." Anyone who knows how much I hate vegetables will immediately smile at the irony of it all.

But
what exactly is a Shatzki's Ring? Well, imagine that your esophagus is
a garden hose 1 1/2 inches wide, connecting your mouth with your
stomach. This flexible hose is held open by a series of rings
along its entire length. When one or more of these rings starts to
"close up" due to fibrous build-up, the sufferer starts to have trouble swallowing.
Usually, the ring must narrow to about 3/4 of an inch before food
starts to get "stuck" on its way down. Usually, drinking some water to
"flush" away the obstruction takes care of the immediate problem, but
as the ring closes further and further, no amount of drinking water and
thorough chewing will prevent a "clog." Usually, a trip to the
Emergency Room is required to clear the clog, and the Ring is widened
at 2am, a time of day when most doctors love performing medical procedures.

Segway (the device so simple a Monkey can use it) 1, 'President' Bush: 0

Thu, 12 Jun 2003 21:13:30 -0700

I seem to recall that when the Segway personal transportation device came out, inventor Dean Kamen suggested it was so simple a child could use it. I assume he was referring to the operator's intellect, not his or her size.

So, with that in mind, here's a BBC story of "President" Bush falling off a Segway, complete with photos.

My Thoughts on Jury Duty

Sat, 31 May 2003 21:11:18 -0700

Though I'm not going to get into any case-specifics about Jury Duty, I want to say the following:

1. How can it possibly be legal for the government to force me to serve on a jury, but it won't force an employer to pay me for my time on the jury? Yes, I know, big business has lobbied the goverment, probably claiming that it isn't right that they lose money on Jury Duty. Fine, so why should I lose money performing my civic duty? Who the hell do I lobby for this?

2. The people who market Jury Duty should be taken out back and shot for doing such a piss poor job of promoting it. The paperwork I got in the mail is filled with such bland language that it's no wonder that people will do anything to get out of Jury Duty, even though I think most people would like it.

Well, Its Safe to Like French Things Again

Mon, 19 May 2003 21:09:36 -0700

So, it seems that "President" Bush has told us, his mindless populace, that it is OK to like France and French things again. Or so he told USA Today.

Thank God. Now I can finally call my Freedom Fountain a bidet again.

Mr. Bush, REALLY Support Our Troops -- Here's What to Do with $726 Billion

Tue, 15 Apr 2003 21:04:45 -0700

Obviously, the War in Iraq is going pretty well for us Americans right now, so sure, it is a little hard to say "I am against the War in Iraq." That said, I am against the War in Iraq. I am pleased that "President" Bush seems to have lucked into a victory against an impoverished third world country, but I don't think he should have committed forces there in the first place, given the pathetic body of "evidence" the world was shown. (BTW, show me some real evidence, and I guarantee you world opinion, as well as my own, will change.)

That said, I very much support our troops, the vast majority of whom are so poorly paid it is pathetic. How much do I support them? I'll put my money, and your money (provided you are a taxpaying U.S. citizen), where my mouth is with this next suggestion:

Odai Hussein and one of the Bush Twins: Modern Day Romeo and Juilet?

Sun, 13 Apr 2003 21:02:38 -0700

So I was reading the news on Google (which by the way, is really great, as it lists stories from all sorts of different newspapers with different agendas), and it had a few stories which revealed that Saddam Hussein's son has a palace filled with drugs, booze, and porno. Like millions of dollars of the stuff. It sure must be nice to be a dictator's son.

Anyway, also found on the wall of smut were several prinouts of "President" Bush's fun-loving twin daughters, Jenna and Barbara. Don't beleive me? Then read all about it here and here.